WASHINGTON, Feb 3 (NNN-KUNA) -- The latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), concludes that the controversial term "civil war" accurately reflects key elements of the problems in Iraq, and predicts that it will be difficult for Iraqi leaders to achieve political reconciliation in the next 12 to 18 months.

The report, prepared by top U.S. government analysts and a collaborative effort by 16 U.S. spy agencies, adds uncertainty to the possibility that U.S. troops can be pulled out of Iraq without undermining the current Iraqi government.

The NIE, released on Friday, said that growing polarization in Iraq, as well as ineffective security forces and continued violence, are creating a very difficult situation that leaves the future of Iraq hanging in the balance.

The Office of the National Intelligence Director made public an unclassified summary of the NIE entitled "Prospects for Iraq's Stability: A Challenging Road Ahead."

While the term "civil war" does not adequately capture the complexity of the situation in Iraq, it does accurately reflect key elements of the problems in Iraq, including the hardening of sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, and the displacement of entire Iraqi populations, the report said.

During an earlier Pentagon briefing on Friday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates was asked about the NIE report, and said he had not yet read it. But he did comment on the term "civil war" as applied to the situation in Iraq.

The words "civil war� oversimplifies a very complex situation in Iraq, Gates said, where "there are essentially four wars" taking place.

"One is Shia on Shia, principally in the south; the second is sectarian conflict, principally in Baghdad, but not solely; third is the insurgency; and fourth is al Qaeda, and al Qaeda is attacking, at times, all of those targets," Gates said.

The report also warned of grave consequences from events that could trigger even more violence in Iraq, such as more mass killings, the assassination of religious or political leaders, or a Sunni defection from the fragile Iraqi government.

During a White House briefing on Friday to discuss the report, national security adviser Stephen Hadley said the substance of the document "is intelligence that we have been provided by the intelligence community for several months.

And it is this intelligence and the picture it paints that caused the President to conclude and then develop a new strategy or a new approach to Iraq."

Describing the NIE as "a tough look at Iraq," Hadley said the report "does suggest that we can succeed with the right policies, and we think we have developed the right policy" and strategy in Iraq.

"The NIE shows, and the President clearly understands, that it is clearly a difficult, challenging and complex situation on the ground in Iraq," Hadley said.

Bush "came to the same conclusion, that unless efforts to reverse these conditions in Iraq show measurable progress in the coming 12 to 18 months, the overall security situation will deteriorate," Hadley said. "That is a conclusion the President reached.

To continue doing what we were doing was, as he said, a prescription for a slow failure."

Hadley quoted one part of the report which said, "If strengthened Iraqi security forces more loyal to the government, and supported by coalition forces, are able to reduce levels of violence and establish more effective security for Iraq's population, Iraqi leaders could have an opportunity to begin the process of political compromise necessary for longer-term stability, political progress and economic recovery."

U.S. officials and the Iraqi people will be pressing the Iraqi government hard, Hadley said, "because at the end of the day, we all understand that (Iraqi) reconciliation is a key to long-term security and success." Again quoting from the report, Hadley noted that it says,
“A key enabler of all these steps would be stronger Iraqi leadership."

Bush agrees with that, Hadley said, "and that is one of the reasons he has been very clear in his comments both publicly and privately to the current (Iraqi) unity government that it is time for them to step up, that they need to take the lead on these issues, particularly Baghdad security, and success will depend on them doing so."