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Indian economy projected to grow 9.2 percent
New Delhi, Feb 27 (IANS) The Indian economy will grow by a robust 9.2 percent in this fiscal even as inflationary pressures will persist because of a mismatch in demand and supply, says the Economic Survey for 2006-07 released Tuesday.
"Unless the supply side constraints, especially in food items, are removed, the inflationary pressures will not be tamed fully," said the survey, tabbed in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament, by Finance Minister P. Chidambaram.
On a positive note, however, the annual report card on the state of the Indian economy, said a sense of optimism had characterised the developments in recent years as the country headed toward high growth trajectory.
India's gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 9 percent in 2005-06.
"The economy appears to have decidedly taken off and moved from a phase of moderate growth to a new phase of high growth," the survey said, while listing a set of two issues and three priorities for the policy-makers.
The two issues are sustaining the growth with moderate inflation, and making the growth inclusive so that larger sections of the society benefit in terms of more jobs and lower poverty levels.
The three priorities are managing the high growth, maintaining fiscal prudence and high investment level, and improving the government's efficiency in tackling issues such as health, education and support for the poor masses.
Even on the perennial problem faced by the economy, namely infrastructure, the survey expressed hope that the recent developments in tackling this issue such as public-private-partnerships had made the outlook promising.
"The drumbeats of infrastructure are gradually getting louder and in the next few years their rumble will be felt and heard all over the country," said the survey.
On the area of social development, the survey said, sustained and high levels of economic growth provide a unique opportunity and momentum for faster development, as it laid emphasis on efficacy of schemes than on fund allotment.
In agriculture that has been India's weak link for sustaining the high growth levels, the survey said the "short-term outlook appears bright" but cautioned that the pace and quality reform will determine its medium-term performance.
The survey also warned that the expected overall growth of industry during the 10th Five Year Plan, which ends March 31, was likely to be short of the targeted 10 percent at 8.7 percent.
"But given the recent performance, the 11th Plan target of 10 percent actual industrial growth appears eminently achievable," the survey said, even as it said that much of that depended on removing infrastructure impediments.
Commenting on the capital markets, the survey said a pick up in investment activity was expected to continue in the next fiscal through public issues, private placement and accessing the international markets.
Turning to the future, the survey said the downside risks were global imbalances in macroeconomic management, volatile crude oil prices and delay in successfully concluding of the current round global trade talks.
"But, for the present, they appear to be limited."
